Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Yield, Gross Margin and Cropping Pattern of Gorgan county

Introduction: Considering that the agricultural sector is strongly dependent on climate parameters of temperature and precipitation, it reacts rapidly related to climate change. Farmers are not able to control the climatic conditions, but management and optimization of the cropping pattern according to the region's climate can reduce the effects of climate change on the yield of agricultural products. Materials and Method: In this research, the effects of climate change on the yield, gross margin and Cropping Pattern of Gorgan County were investigated. For this purpose, at first, by using the regression analysis, the effects of climate variables on temperature and annual precipitation on the yield of selected products during the period of 1367-1396 were investigated. Then, the climate change of the study area was predicted for the upcoming periods (2021-2040), the near future (2051-2070) and the far future (2081-2100) by General Circulation Model HadGEM2. in the end, the region's cultivated area was stimulated by the application of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and the effects of climate change on the cultivated area in the mentioned periods were investigated. Results and discussion: The results showed that climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation have a significant effect on the yield of selected products. Also, by applying predictions of climate change in the cropping pattern model, Potato with 0.27 and 71.7 percent increase, the highest increase in yield and cultivated area respectively, and High-quality long-grain rice with 0.17 percent reduction have the highest decrease in yield and barley with 89.1 percent reduction have the highest decrease in the cultivated area. and the gross margins of farmers were increased in all three periods. Suggestion: As a result, it could be mentioned that consideration of the effects of climate change and improving the productivity of agricultural products, can decrease the negative effects of this event.  JEL Classification: C22, C02, Q25, Q54