A SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL METHOD TO ANALYZE AND PREDICT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN INDIA

As of 10 May 2020, the pandemic of COVID-19 claimed 274,488 lives globally. Since March 2020, the number of infections has been rising rapidly in India. To prevent and control its transmission, one needs to estimate how fast the number rises in the country. The objective of the present study is to provide the policymakers of the country with an easy mathematical tool to make proper predictions regarding the spread of the disease. This article is based on a simple algebraic structure, rather than a set of coupled differential equations which are used by the conventional mathematical models of epidemiology. An estimation of the asymptomatic patients, using this method, leads to the cumulative count of symptomatic patients. Data of COVID-19 cases in India, for the period from 01 March 2020 to 03 May 2020, have been used. The predictions made by this formulation are in reasonable agreement with observations, for a certain set of values of the parameters associated with it. Using these values, more predictions have been made regarding the time evolution of the number of infections, within and beyond the lockdown period. This method enables one to estimate the number of asymptomatic carriers who play a major role in transmitting the disease. The effectiveness of the imposition of lockdown has been clearly demonstrated here. All calculations are based on very simple mathematical expressions that can be understood, used and modified easily by those having an elementary knowledge of algebra. This model can be applied for the prediction of COVID-19 spread in any country of the world, through a proper tuning of the associated parameters.