STRUCTURAL STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC TIME SERIES MODEL OF MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE ACT (MGNREGA) PROGRAMME IN KARNATAKA STATE

This paper has demonstrated economic time series structural stochastic model from using real data sets of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee act Programme (MGNREGA). Socioeconomic status structured questionnaires (Kuppuswamy adopted scale 2020) were administered to 285 beneficiaries in selected districts of Karnataka State and also Secondary data was collected from the Government authority. The Structural Stochastic Economic Time Series Model (SSETSM) was build from the real empirical data sets of MGNREGA by varied iteration techniques (Thompson iteration method). The formulated model estimated unobserved components of various economic indicators and it would be plausible to generate accurate forecasting figures , newer model techniques where one also has the choice of using a pooling of contemporaneous predictors on each target series. Model results logically derive its own strength in forecasting from the real fact of national policy intervention ,incepted at rural areas for economically strengthening the unemployed youths , below poverty line and economically weaker section population. Derived model incorporates necessary informations about other associated variables ,rather than merely historical absolute values on its own paradigm.