Proposed Equations for Crude Oil Theft Volume (And Volume-Share) Estimations in Oil Transport Pipeline Network

In Nigeria, for example, Crude oil theft is on an industrial scale. Estimates of how much oil is stolen from oil transport pipeline in Nigeria vary widely because of lack of fool-proof measures to monitor pipelines, absence of up-to-the minute technology to determine the actual production, tepid attitude to the policing of the pipeline and the strong enabling environment corruption and fraud, in the oil sector. This work presents an equation, based on reconciliation factor, for estimating crude oil theft volume, and model for crude oil theft volume-share among oil producers utilizing a pipeline network belonging to a major producer. The model formulated tries to allocate crude oil stolen volume proportionally to all flow stations and injectors connected to a pipeline network pro rata their injection and pipeline exposures. The model is also formulated to share the loss in a manner that consider the varying BS&W of the “dry crude” and/or “wet crude” delivered into the oil transport pipeline network. Data from an X terminal pipeline network, experiencing crude oil theft, in the Niger Delta are used to illustrate the applicability of the models.