A Quick Method for Estimating the Hidden Risks In A Subset of A Low Risk Population

This paper proposes a simple screening method to detect possible hidden high risks in a subset of a population that has shown low risks in total. Using an example, with the method, the unknown standard mortality ratio (SMR) and its confidence interval for a disease in a subset of a study population could be predicted, given the proportion of the subset and the SMR of that disease in the study population. The confidence intervals calculated for the estimated SMR can be used to judge whether the risk possibly existing in the subset is statistically detectable at the desired significance levels. The method could be a useful tool in suggesting whether a statistically detectable high risk of a disease may be hidden in a subset of a no or low risk population and further study is needed.