Future Institutional Care Needs of the Elderly in Japan

Incorporating a theoretical logic into a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM, we estimated future institutional care needs of the elderly in Japan. Among the elderly aged 65 or over, the proportion of those who stay in institutions (institution rate) will increase from 4.7% in 2015 to 12.4% for Standard case or 6.6% for Independent case in 2065. After an international comparison on the institution rate of the elderly, we discussed the importance of alternative ways for the elderly care other than institutional care.