Нездійснені мовні прогнози: уроки дає історія

The external history of individual languages shows attempts to predict their future. Time has shown that these predictions were both true and false. The article on the material of some languages analyzes what exactly predicted them in the past and what happened to them later. For example, in 16–17th centuries English was perceived as «backward» and «peasant», which should give way to a more perfect Latin. In the middle of the 20th century the Russian language was foretold the status of a world language after the victory of communism throughout the world. Quite often predictions about the near death of languages experiencing linguicide turned out to be false. Fr. Engels predicted the disappearance of «small» Slavic peoples and their languages (Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Slovenes). In the 18th century, the Swedish administration predicted the rapid disappearance of the «hopeless» Finnish language. Sometimes optimistic forecasts were not confirmed either. At one time, nobody could foresee the rapid decline of Yiddish. As a result of the Nazi Holocaust and the subsequent assimilation of the Jews, the demographic power of this language decreased by more than 20 times. At the same time, Hebrew has unexpectedly overcome the opposite path during the incomplete century: from a half dead book language to a universal means of communication in all communicative spheres. The history of the Ukrainian language abounds with predictions of its imminent decline. The respective forecasts were given not only by assimilators, but also by native speakers. Thus, in the 19th century one of the motives for compiling grammar and dictionaries was the fear that in the future it would be impossible to do so, as the language is doomed to death. From chauvinistic point of view the Ukrainian language was perceived as unviable, which served as a basis for administrative oppressions and prohibitions. The misconceptions about its futility and near death existed in fact until the end of the 20th century. Unfulfilled predictions about the decline of languages give reason to formulate a recommendation: even if the language is subject to linguicide, it is not necessary to be pessimistic and to lose heart. The belief in a better future, the position «not to give up under any circumstances», the guide to an uncompromising fight for the language is practically expedient and psychologically advantageous. The second conclusion: there are still no reliable forecasting methods in linguistics. This is a big gap, because, apart from cognitive function, science must also have a predictive function. Prediction of the future of the language should become a topical task of modern linguistics.