BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN CITIES OF PERU

Actually, the Covid-19 is still in force in Peru, due to its complicated understanding of the epidemic's transmission rate, the present research was proposed with the objective of estimating the basic reproduction number R_0, for the transmission by Covid-19 and simulate the behavior of infections in the cities of Lima, Callao, Piura, Lambayeque, Libertad and Loreto, through the binomial chain model and using the infection reports; the parameters that maximize the chain probability function were estimated. The estimates of R ̂_0, at 95% confidence interval were 1.534(CI, 1.523-1.546), 1.662(CI, 1.623-1.701), 1.829(CI, 1.787-1.873), 1.521(IC, 1.478-1.558), 1.506(IC, 1.454-1.558) and 1.624(IC, 1.570-1.680), in the cities of Lima, Callao, Piura, Lambayeque, Libertad and Loreto, respectively. The projections for the end of the epidemic, the city of Lima will have a longer duration of 35 weeks compared to other cities studied.