Overcoming The Socio-Economic Consequences Of Military Conflict in Ukraine And The Impact Investment Of Post-Conflict Recovery Of Anti-Terrorist Operation

The article analyzes the socio-economic consequences of the armed conflict for the economic development of the ATO regions. The key problems related to the temporarily occupied territories were identified, the directions of their solution and the role that impact investment can play in this were specified. A dynamic analysis of indicators of socio-economic development of Ukrainian economy as a whole and in the regional context for the period from 2012 to 2019 was conducted. It is determined that the loss of territorial control has led to a significant deterioration of the economy in Ukraine; the assessment of losses of economic potential at the anti-terrorist operation zone was carried out. The social component of this issue is analyzed separately, namely, how the conflict affected the population, the loss of human capital, in particular due to mass displacement. These include human losses, forced displacement, destruction of physical infrastructure, disruption of so-called soft economic infrastructure (for example, existing links between sellers and consumers). Given the scale of losses and consequences, we can talk about a wide range of areas for impact investment, related to economic recovery in post-conflict regions. The article presents a list of steps to restore the occupied territories, which can be translated into the plane of solving socio-economic problems, as well as an assessment of the overall needs for the restoration of government-controlled areas of the ATO. This allowed us to conclude that the restoration of infrastructure is one of the most promising areas for attracting investment and implementing impact investment. However, a study of this area for investment revealed that not all areas will be cost-effective and attractive to investors. Therefore, the direction of impact investments immediately after the political settlement of the conflict in Donbass in infrastructure should be expected only in the field of telecommunications. Other sectors will receive private investment only after a few years of stability, so only public financial support and public investment policy should be considered a key source of funding.