Investigation of the probability of existence of defects with a size exceeding the allowed value

Relevance. Non-destructive testing of metal determines the actual state of the metal, the presence of discontinuities and their sizes, and also allows to determine what mechanisms of metal degradation were subjected to. One of the main characteristics of the quality of non-destructive testing is the detectability of discontinuities and defects. If no defects were missed, then it’s possible to guarantee the reliable operation of the facility until the next scheduled inspection. The article is devoted to the study of the probability function of detecting defects and determining the probability of the existence of a residual defect with a size exceeding the permissible value. The aim of the work - to develop a method to determine the probability of the existence of a residual defect with a size exceeding the permissible value after non-destructive testing and repairs of equipment and pipelines of a nuclear power plant. Methods. During the work formulas for the probability of detecting a defect and initial defectiveness, regulatory requirements in the field of certification of flaw detectors, and the results of research on non-destructive testing were used. Results. A method for determining the probability of defects with a size exceeding the allowed value, using the example of a reactor vessel, is presented. The method is based on residual defects, which takes into account the detectability of defects. The value of the coefficient that takes into account the influence of the human factor, instrument and methodological shortcomings or complexity of access to the control point is determined, which reduces the degree of uncertainty in determining the residual defect. The results of this work permit to evaluate the probability of the existence of a defect with a size exceeding the allowed value. The development of a residual defect to critical values characterizes the initial event for the destruction of the integrity of the structure. Thus, the probability of a residual defect can be used when performing a safety analysis of the water-water energetic reactor vessel.