Evaluation of the influence of the machine environment factors on the strategic planning of development of recreational tourism of Сrimea

The main goal is to consider the main provisions of strategic planning for the development of recreational tourism in Crimea based on an assessment of the influence of macroenvironmental factors, which makes it possible to develop aggregated indicators for the medium term to increase the competitive position of the republic's recreational business, enhance the role of the market for recreational and health services, and improve the quality parameters of provided recreational services. The study examines the key positions of the STEEP-analysis of the external macroenvironment for the development of recreational tourism in Crimea, which have a high probability of implementation. The ratio of organized and amateur recreational tourism, which affects the level of occupancy of the room fund of collective accommodation facilities, changes in their profitability based on the indicators of the State Program for the Development of Resorts and Tourism of the Republic of Crimea in 2015-2022, has been estimated. As one of the approaches to strategic planning, the application of the quantitative method of scenario forecasting is considered, which made it possible to determine the dynamics of such forecast indicators as the potential volume of provided recreational services, the number of arrivals and accommodated tourists and recreants, the volume of income of recreational tourism taken out of the shadow turnover and calculate the increase in the volume of recreational services of the Republic of Crimea in the amount of 409.3 million rubles for the period 2020-2026.