RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT AMID CHANGING GLOBAL CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the existing forecasts of Russian energy sector development, assess their quality and compile proposals on generating industry development forecasts considering macroeconomic factors and demand for Russian energy from foreign buyers. The authors use forecasting methods to assess whether the applicable external influence factors are adequate to deliver development forecasts for the fuel and energy industry. The method of comparative analysis is used to determine whether statistics are correct in the industry forecasts. Research results: Industry development forecasts are analysed and divergence is established as a result of missing alignment with the external markets. The authors propose a systemic approach to forecasting industry development, which integrates all aspects of economic, technological, information and political influences.