CHINA’S INFRASTRUCTURE DIPLOMACY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EXPLAINING ASYMMETRIC BARGAINING WITH FOUR ASEAN COUNTRIES

Existing studies on China's infrastructure investment projects have largely focused on its geopolitical and geoeconomic implications by assuming that China will easily obtain support and cooperation from developing countries. However, asymmetric power capabilities of China do not always imply that it would be able to achieve all desired outcomes at any time. Since China's infrastructure diplomacy is essentially based on gaining support from developing countries, possibility of strategic misalignment with them and political risks emanated from intensified strategic competition with other great powers create an opportunity for negotiations between China and each host country in itself. Using an analytical framework from the bargaining theory in international relations, this article argues that Southeast Asian countries are able to increase their bargaining leverage vis-a-vis China. The success of China's infrastructure diplomacy depends on the combination of three factors, such as strategic location, outside option and domestic constraints, affecting political bargaining processes between China and Southeast Asian countries. In this context, the future prospect of regional cooperation is likely to be shaped by the interactions between different development and connectivity plans in Southeast Asia. The increasing China-Japan competition provides economic opportunities but at the same time implies high security risks for individual ASEAN countries.