Siirt Province Earthquake Hazard Analysis

Siirt Province is one of the important cities of the Southeastern Anatolia Region. The fault lines around the Southeast Anatolia and surrounding region has caused serious earthquakes on the area. In this study, the study region has been decided as the circular area that is surrounding the 200 km radius of the city center of Siirt Province. The city center of Siirt stands at 37.55 North and 41.56 East coordinates and is effected by active fault lines connected to the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Southeast Anatolian Thrust. The statistical earthquake risk of the study region has been presented considering Gutenberg and Richter equation. In this study the moment magnitude (Mw) that is most suitable for Gutenberg-Richter Equation has been chosen from Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute's earthquake catalogue. From the catalogue the earthquake data of Mw ≥ 4 and between the years 1900-2020 was used. In the study magnitude frequency relation, seismic risk and return periods of the study region have been calculated. According to this R2 = 0.99, a constant has been calculated as 7.0994, b constant has been calculated as 1.0257. According to earthquake risk analysis of the study area the possibility of an earthquake in the next 50 years at the magnitude of 6.0 and 6.5 has been calculated as %79 and %38 respectively. While the return periods have been calculated as 32 and 105 years respectively. The purpose of the study is to remind the earthquake risk of the Siirt Province and to make sure earthquake truth of the area won't be forgotten when deciding engineering structures and their location.