A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RISK MANAGEMENT WITH APPLICATION TO WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN EGYPT

Water supply systems (WSS) are commonly collected of water sources (WS), transmission pipes, treatment plants, and distribution networks from source to tap and generally are subjected to variation of risks. However, the present study provides an adaptive risk management framework for water supply systems that provides drinkable water to various Cairo regions. However, three risk assessment and management case studies were conducted at different Cairo drinkable water supply systems during 2015- 2018, including the location served by North Helwan, Fostat and ElMarg water treatment plants (WTP). The work scope was involved in two main parts. In the first part, the common risk challenges in water distribution systems (WDS) are assessed to adopt the methodology for risk management in the Cairo water system. Moreover, these types of risks are sectored according to their potential impact and probability of occurrence is developed. While, the second part involved on developing a Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) approach to integrate risk alternatives mitigation based on supply reliability, environmental, social and economic key criteria and consequently supply decision support on the choosing of risk response strategies according to the correlation between their reference and comparability sequences. Then, in order to monitor the tolerability of acceptable residual risk levels after applying the proposed alternative strategies, the principal of As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) is applied. The outcomes of this paper displayed that several risks constitute the main parameter within which to characterize water supply systems and its operation, thus, it is a key factor in supply and distribution system operation and planning decision making. Moreover, this study put forward the basis for water services providers to mitigate the risk of non-compliance and realize the target supply standards within the short, medium and long term.