CREDIT RISK AND ITS DETERMINING FACTORS IN UKRAINE

In this article, an analysis of the modern state of credit risk, and in particular the share of arrears in the total amount of loans issued by the whole banking system. Also an attempt was made to find some interrelations between the credit risk and some other macroeconomic indicators. During the research was found that the current state of credit risk and the share of non-­performing loans is very high, and more than every second hryvnia in all loans issued by banks is overdue, and that the majority of non-­performing loans have a period exceeding three months. The current size of the share of overdue debts is one of the largest for the entire recorded his‑ tory of banking practice in all countries of the world. And individuals are generally not able to service the loan, if it was issued in foreign currency, the share of such non-­performing loans is more than 95%. It is clear that this can not pass without a trace and such a high proportion of arrears has a significant destabilizing effect on the functioning of the banking system and the economy as a whole. Also an attempt was made to find some interrelations between credit risk's size, and in particular the share of overdue debt, with the variety of other macroeconomic indicators. In this context, investigated the interrelations with the dynamics of the hryvnia course against the dollar, with the inflation index, with the total amount of issued loans, with the size of the standard of large credit risks (H8), with the cost of credit resources for individuals (the size of the credit interest rate), with the number of banks, with the size of the NBU discount rate, with the unemployment rate and the size of the average wage in Ukraine. In a result of this study, notably of building a multifactor regression model of the dependence of the share of overdue debt on certain influencing it factors, own calculations, it was determined that the hryvnia against the dollar rate and the inflation index were the most important factors of influence.