QUANTITATIVE RISK INDICATORS IN THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING THE CROSS-BORDER COOPERATION OF WESTERN REGIONS OF UKRAINE

The article substantiates the author's position that the most effective scenario of export-import ratio in crossborder trade in the western regions is achieved, provided that the whole system of indicators characterizing the economic system is within its thresholds. The author's interpretation of the category «thresholds» for the volume of exports and imports of the region. A number of regional foreign trade indicators have been proposed to analyze regional export-import operations. The article presents a generalized scheme of the process of finding the area of tolerable risk of import-export flows of the region, which contains an algorithm of actions for conducting quantitative analysis of risk and finding boundaries of foreign trade flows of western regions of Ukraine and determining the threshold values of risk indicators of foreign trade. The article provides recommendations for improving the process of foreign trade transborder operations in the western region and for the calculation of forecast targets for regional exports and imports, the main components of foreign trade exports. in the cross-border foreign trade of the western regions of Ukraine.