Counterforce Temptations in South Asia

India's ‘No First Use' (NFU) commitment enunciated in its 2003 nuclear doctrine was not ‘unconditional,' and retains the option of retaliation with nuclear weapons in response to a non-nuclear attack. The recent statements by India's senior leadership questioning the rationale of maintaining an NFU posture has led many international observers to conclude that India may have formally given up its NFU posture and could be contemplating the option of pre-emptive counterforce strikes against its principal adversary, Pakistan. The doctrinal ambiguities together with the ongoing Indian military modernization, which includes the acquisition of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system; operationalization of second-strike capability and the recent testing of a Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV) has further reinforced the perception that India could be developing nuclear as well as conventional counterforce options to deter and prevent Pakistan from the early deployment or use of short range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), and create space for India's limited war fighting doctrines of Cold Start or Pro-Active Operations (PAOs). These developments are likely to push the region towards another cycle of ‘instability-stability pendulum' with serious consequences for regional as well as global stability.