Risks and threats to ensuring food security of Ukraine: methodological foundations and practical evaluation

The article provides substantiation to the fact that ensuring food security of the state is an important component of its socioeconomic policy and a key indicator of the effectiveness of the national strategy in the local and global context. It has been proved that identification of risks and threats to food security in a timely manner makes it possible to assess the current trends of its main indicators and to further forecast them in a rapidly changing market environment. It has been identified and methodically supported that the system of risks and threats to food security is complementary related to the possibility of negative changes in its level, because the more likely the possibility of adverse changes, the higher the level of risk. It has been proved that the process of identifying food security risks should be based on the results of the analysis of the factors that cause them. Methodological steps in the context of risk assessment of the country in terms of the loss of food security have been identified: 1) systematization of food security indicators from the standpoint of risk management; 2) identification of all factors/threats that may cause adverse changes in indicators; 3) assessment of the possibility/probability of negative changes in food security indicators due to each of the identified factors/threats. The system of risks is determined from the standpoint of taking into account the sphere of formation and realization of resource potential, the sphere of food production, and the sphere of food distribution and consumption. A methodological approach to the calculation of the risk of negative fluctuations of food security indicators in the context of estimating the corresponding coefficients of semi-variation has been proposed. Strategically important types of agricultural products have been selected for the study, namely grain crops and legumes, sunflower, vegetables, meat and milk. In general, the calculations have shown an increased risk of negative fluctuations in the affordability of domestic food products against the background of intensification of internal and external threats to food security of Ukraine. The integrated risk coefficient for agriculture at large is 14.03 (the risk coefficient of crop production is 15.37, for animal husbandry 7.04).