Clinical course and risk prediction of permanent atrial fibrillation development in patients with chronic heart failure and mid-range ejection fraction of the left ventricle

The purpose of the study was to establish clinical features of permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with heart failure mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and to develop a mathematical model for predicting arrhythmia development. The study included 42 patients with IHD, arterial hypertension (AH), permanent AF and HFmrEF (1 group), mean age – 68.0±1.2 years (21 men and 21 women) and 36 patients with CAD / АH and HFmrEF without AF, mean age- 67.5±0.7 years (22 men and 14 women). The results of the study show, that patients with permanent AF and HFmrEF are characterized by the higher diastolic arterial pressure, higher values of the LDLP, iESV LV, index of end-systolic volume of LV septal thickness and lower EF of the LV in comparison with patients without AF. Patients with permanent AF and HFmrEF also have increased plasma levels of hsCRP, IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 in comparison with patients without AF. A mathematical model with scoring system of hsCRP, IL-1β, LV mass index, HDLP, LDLP was developed to assess the risk of AF development in patients with HFmrEF with accuracy of 85.9%, sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 86.1%.