Presetting a Desirable Pattern of Natural Hazard Risk Management (Earthquake) in Rural Areas: A Case Study of Villages in Qazvin Province of Iran

The operationalization of earthquake risk management objectives in rural areas requires a desirable management process and pattern. Therefore, this study aimed to desirable pattern of natural hazard risk management (earthquake) in rural areas using mathematical models, strategic management planning (SMP) and quantitative strategic management planning (QSMP). It was a descriptive and applied research, the required information of which were collected in both library and field methods. Initially, 19 appropriate indicators (such as housings quality, buildings age, population density, earthquake magnitude) were identified and weighted to rank the risks of vulnerability in the studied area and the data were analyzed after collecting their statistics and information. Then, the perspectives of respondents including 386 household members and 29 individuals from the local institutions (rural council and administrator) in 29 sample villages from a selected county in Qazvin province of Iran as well as the views of 15 specialists on management of earthquake risk and planning to reduce vulnerability were received, described and analyzed through 69 items within a questionnaire. The results showed that the desired integrated and sustainable pattern of earthquake risk management in the rural areas (with 100 percent allocation of scores) consisted of three stages including before (evaluation, prevention and reduction) with 50 percent, during (emergency response and initial rehabilitation and evaluation) with 21 percent and after (reconstruction and cleaning, rehabilitation and evaluation) with 29 percent of the total scores. Finally, understanding and promoting the basic components of earthquake risk management as key elements in each stage of earthquake risk management were emphasized.