New approach to risk assessment of certain agricultural products

Purpose. The main purpose of the research is to substantiate a new approach to assessing the risk of production and sales of certain types of the agricultural products. Methodology / approach. The abstract-and-logical method (systematization of publications on risk assessment of the risk level); the economic and statistical one (determination of root-mean-square deviation (δ), the coefficient of variation (v), and the coefficient of residual variation); the marginal analysis (determination of the break-even level of production of certain types of the products) have been used. Results. The methodological approach that allows determining the risk level of certain types of the products has been developed and it has been proposed to determine not only with the help of the break-even point, but also to supplement the following indicators – determining the reserve of safety and the reserve of financial strength. It is proved that similar obtained assessments of the certain product type production risk level using the analysis of variation indices can be reached by examining the break-even point indices, financial safety margin and the margin of safety. Research results show that unlike variation indices, the break-even point index, the financial safety margin index and the margin of safety index show the maximum amount of possible net income reduction. Originality / scientific novelty. The methodical approach to the assessment of the risk level of agricultural production at the given level of profitability, which is based on the comparison of the levels of production intensity of certain types of the products, that ensures their break-even point, has been substantiated. Practical value. The application of the proposed methodological approach allows the managers to determine how much to reduce the amount of the net income or the level of production intensity, but not to fall into the zone of loss.