A Model for Estimation of Vesico Vaginal Fistula in Kebbi State

This paper examined the monthly reported cases of Vesico Vaginal Fistula (VVF) in Kebbi State, Nigeria between the period of 2009-2014 using Box and Jenkins approach. The result from the estimation of parameters of the model showed that ARIMA (1, 1, 1) is the best model for the data i. e. is appropriate. The initial test statistic value for ADF was -4.2050 which shows that the series has unit root, the KPSS test statistic was 0.839, and however after the transformation by taken the first differencing the series become stationary. The test statistic for portmanteau was 11.8092 which shows there is absent of serial correlation and ARCH-LM test statistic was 2.9973 shows that the series has no ARCH-LM effect is present. Therefore ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was fit the data, (has verify the model is strength). The forecast showed that the menace of VVF is increase in the next 24 months. This study recommended however, to help eradicate the problem in KebbiState, that the government shall provide obstetric care Centres most especially in the rural areas, age of marriage no doubt affects pregnancy and also husbands shall allowed and encourage their wives to visit hospital during pregnancy period.