Markov Assessment on Operational Reliability of Power Grid

In view of the defects in power system reliability analysis that discrete Markov chain model simulation stays longer in the same state often, from the viewpoint of operation and based on continuous time Markov chain and under the premise that equipment failure rate complies with exponential distribution characteristics, a model, by which fast analytical analysis on power system operation reliability can be carried out, is proposed. The core of the proposed model lies in following aspects firstly, based on historical operation data of power system, a corresponding Q-matrix of the continuous time Markov chain equivalent to power system operation is attained, secondly, according to the current power system operating condition and utilizing the concept of stopping time of Q-process, such reliability indices for some time to come as steady state probability and mean time to first failure of power system can be rapidly analyzed. So the rapid assessment of power system operation reliability can be implemented. A numerical example is computed by using the proposed method.