A Probabilistic Analysis of Cancer as a Markovian Process in the Curable Phase

After diagnosis of cancer one can know about its stages and according to that treatment of a cancer patient is generally started. The main part of any cancer treatment is to prolong the advancement of cancer to further sites of human body and thus to increase the survival rate of the patient. In this paper, attempt was made to study the transiting behavior of a cancer patient from one stage of cancer to another through a Markov process. The stages of cancer were divided into two phases viz. curable and incurable. As long as the patient remains in the curable phase the treatment given to the patient will be more effective. The paper primarily dealt with the conditions of the curable phase of cancer. The different probabilities of going to a cancerous stage for the first time provided it was in a healthy stage initially were calculated. The different waiting time distributions from one stage to an advanced stage were calculated through different cure time distributions. The expected number of visits to the healthy state 0 from an unhealthy state as calculated in this paper will help in knowing about the effectiveness of the treatment given to a cancer patient.