A Time Series Modeling on GDP of Pakistan

The gross domestic product (GDP), an essential gauge of an economy's economic presentation, is the market assessment of all final services and goods produced in the boundaries of a nation in a year. Within this paper, the features of annual data of Pakistan’s GDP acquired from International Monetary Fund (IMF) starting from 1953 to 2012 are studied. To model the GDP, a set of Autoregressive integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are constructed following Box-Jenkins technique. ARIMA (1,1,0) has been obtained through expert modeler method by considering best fit model. Finally, forecast values for a few coming year have been generated applying the best fitted ARIMA model. The finding shows that the forecast values of Pakistan’s GDP will be 23477Billion rupees in 2013 and 103918 billion rupees in 2025.