Forecasting Infections by Tuberculosis in the Nile River State Sudan
Journal: International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) (Vol.4, No. 1)Publication Date: 2015-01-05
Authors : Abdalla Ahmed; Alkhalifa Abdalla;
Page : 1461-1464
Keywords : tuberculosis; incidence rate; moving average; autoregressive; moving average-autoregressive;
- Forecasting Infections by Tuberculosis in the Nile River State Sudan
- The Status of Married Couples The Nile River State ? Sudan
- The Prevalence of Schistosomasis among People in Almatama locality River Nile State, Sudan
- The Effect of Therapeutic Formulae on the Weight Gain of Malnourished Children under Two in River Nile State, Sudan
- Toxoplasmosis Sero- Prevalence among Aborted Women by Different Techniques in Atbara Area- River Nile State, Sudan
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to find a time series model to forecast the number of infections by Tuberculosis in the River Nile state Sudan. The source of data is the national program to fight tuberculosis in the ministry of health and population of the Nile river state Sudan. Box and Jenkins models were used to find the model. Analysis done by Minitab package. The paper concluded that, the Cumulative Incidence rate of Tuberculosis for the period studied is 0.15 and the appropriate model to estimate infections of Tuberculosis in the Nike river stat is moving average model MA and the forecast of infections by Tuberculosis for the two coming years ranging from 74 to 140 case.
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