Decrease of the Actual Fertility in Koplik. The Comparison of the Coming Population's Fertility with the Locals

The study is done in Koplik municipality. Koplik is a small town, in the north of Albania. It is built a database for 20000 inhabitants of Koplik Municipality, where it is included the year of birth, the year of marriage and the year of death. These data, are used to built the genealogical trees. Using these data is calculated TFR and CEB 50+, for this population, for 1970-2013 period. Comparison of these parameters concludes se TFR (variance 0.81) is more variable than CEB 50+ (variance 0.069). Based in the calculated value of TFR and CEB 50+, for the period 1970-2013, is observed significant difference between TFR ( actual fertility) and CEB 50+ ( past fertility). Regression analysis shows that the increase of mean age of marriage and decrease of infant mortality, reduce fertility. Other factors that may have effect it, are education and employment of women. Using the Anova analysis to compare the number of children ever born from five years old age groups, from 25-49 age groups for the entire population with that of the locals neighborhood of Koplik, results that there is no significant difference between the number of the children ever born by the women of the entire population with those of the locals. Also the number of the children ever born by women 50+ age which represents the past fertility, results more or less equal as for the population 3690 children for 1000 women, also for the locals, 3700 children for 1000 women.