PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM AND LONGTERM RESULTS OF GASTRECTOMY FOR GASTRIC CANCER

Aim. To define the factors determining short-term and long term results of gastrectomy in gastric cancer patients. Material and Methods. The article considers the prognostic factors of short- and long-term results of gastrectomy. Operations were performed on 1,435 patients with gastric cancer in Donetsk regional cancer centre during a 20-year period. Results and Discussion. The methods of mathematic modeling were used to predict the results of the study. The methods of neural network modeling and logistic regressive model-building were applied to determine the links between the prognosticated indicator and a set of input indicators. In the process of model building, the method of operational data plotting was used to optimize the decision threshold. The method of genetic algorithm selection was applied during identification of the most significant indicators. Conclusion. It was confirmed that the risk of intraoperative complications increases both with the number of removed organs and/or anatomical structures and the presence of comorbidity. The death risk rate after gastric cancer surgery increases with emergence of neoplastic process complications, comorbidities, tumor location in the cardiac orifice, stomach body or the total involvement of the organ. Such factors as patient's age, T and N categories, and presence of postoperative complications influence the longterm results of gastrectomy operations. The increase of the death risk with age is statistically significant (p<0,001), and it comprises HR=1.02 (95% Â? 1.01- 1.03) annually. The statistically significant increase (p=0,028) of death risk rate for male patients was also identified; it comprises HR=1.18 (95% Â? 1.02- 1.37). Key words: gastric cancer, gastrectomy, short-term results, long-term results, prognostic factors