Surface Air Temperature of Kolkata District of West Bengal, India A Statistical Study

The impact of steady increase in surface air temperature on climate change is a serious topic of today's discussion. This study deals with the trend analysis and time series analysis and its future forecasts of surface air temperature of Kolkata district of West Bengal state, India during 1901 2002. The mean of annual average, maximum and minimum surface air temperature 0C of last 102 years are respectively 26.73, 31.26 and 22.23 with 1.27 , 1.28 and 1.73 coefficients of variation. A non parametric trend test namely the Mann Kendall MK Trend Test along with the Sen's Slope estimator has been used to determine the monotonic trend of temperature and the magnitude of trend respectively. On the other hand, the Innovative Trend Test is also being performed for pattern determination. Both of the Mann Kendall MK Trend Test and Innovative Trend Test show that the trend of average, minimum and maximum surface air temperatures of Kolkata are increasing i.e. upwards in nature. The time series forecasts of surface air temperature are done by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA model. This upward trend of surface air temperature has an impact on human life and urbanization as well. The impact of climate change and related socio economic development will affect the ability of a nation to achieve sustainable development goals. The statistical analysis is carried out by using “R” Version 3.6.1 statistical software. Amartya Bhattacharya "Surface Air Temperature of Kolkata District of West Bengal, India - A Statistical Study" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-4 , June 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.compapers/ijtsrd43684.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.comother-scientific-research-area/enviormental-science/43684/surface-air-temperature-of-kolkata-district-of-west-bengal-india--a-statistical-study/amartya-bhattacharya