Forecasting in Anti-crisis Management under Reforming Conditions

The article studies the process of forecasting the anti-crisis management of the economy under the conditions of decentralisation. In the context of economic reform and spread of crisis, the ability to predict the effectiveness of planned actions is a task of utmost importance. The most problematic aspect in anti-crisis management is the development of an effective projected model that would take into consideration participation of citizens in making economic decisions under the conditions of a spreading crisis. One of possible solutions to this problem is making a forecast of situations to overcome the crisis and study the territories by social, ecological and economic conditions. The following methods were used in the course of the research: research of phenomena (objects, subjects), division of the territory of Ukraine into parts by a set of indicators; exploring different sides of a territorial object; identification and analysis of relationship between factors and results. On the basis of the developed approach and according to the results of the research, it was possible to develop a projected model of crisis detection of the territories under the conditions of decentralisation, which takes into account: availability of resource and labour potential, social, environmental and economic components of territorial development; crisis risk factor; overall decentralisation ratio. It has been determined that crisis forecasting and foresight cover a number of interrelated stages and it can be implemented within the framework of preventive regulation and as one of the stages preceding the development of the program. It has been proved that forecasting as for economic, social and environmental development is a means of substantiating the choice (by legislative and executive bodies and local authorities) of a particular strategy and making specific decisions on regulating social and economic processes. Moreover, when creating management forecasts under the conditions of a crisis, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of all regions of the country. Research and analysis of the events in the process of reform enabled the development of qualifying features of management decisions in crisis situations under the conditions of decentralisation with the use of forecasting. The conducted researches made it possible to differentiate the use of the foresight method in planning the development of territorial entities.