Forecasting Subsidy Indicators Based on the Analysis of the Series of Dynamics

Economic reforms that took place in the social protection system led to a global redistribution of national wealth and household incomes, and unsystematic social measures had no tangible effect and did not significantly affect the scale of poverty in Ukraine. The article is devoted to the urgent problem of social protection of the population and the interbranch character of the problem being studied. Social protection is an integral part of the policy of the state, responsible for the welfare, development and security of its citizens. This is the factor, on which effectiveness of the civilizational development of any society depends. One type of social assistance is subsidies. Subsidies are an effective tool for free targeted assistance to the population from the state, it allows sending it to those Ukrainian families which really need help. The purpose of the article is to forecast the indicators of subsidies on the basis of an analysis of their dynamic series and the factors influencing them. In order to forecast the growth of subsidies in the Transcarpathian region, the analysis of the dynamics of the assigned subsidies from 2012 to 2016 has been carried out, which has been carried out on the basis of the apparatus of mathematical statistics. The scientific novelty lies in the comparison of different dynamic series by the nature and dimension of the dynamic series by representing them in dimensionless indices, revealing the relationship between the dynamics of the number of families that received subsidies, the amount of subsidies in hryvnia, the dollar equivalent and the value of the consumer basket. A linear trend has been used to estimate the growth rates of the studied indicators, and the parabolic trend is to predict their size with a certain level of reliability in subsequent years. The practical significance of the results obtained is that they can be used in making managerial decisions and developing measures to improve the quality of social assistance. This subject has a perspective of research on the direction of improving the financial mechanism of public administration to provide the population with social services.