Assessment of the Target Criterion and Leading Indicators of Regulatory Influence in the Banking Sector

The article defines the essence and methods of measuring the target criterion and leading indicators of regulatory influence in the banking sector. It is proposed to supplement prudential banking supervision, based on tracking the economic standards of individual banks, with models of discriminant analysis for a comprehensive assessment of the financial condition and risk of bankruptcy of banks. The use of the built-in reference matrix of discriminant analysis of the level of financial condition and the degree of risk of bankruptcy of the bank, as leading indicators of regulatory impact, will improve the quality of financial determination of its market value as a target criterion of regulatory impact on banking. The reference matrix serves as a reliable indicator for informed decisions by owners, managers, customers and national regulators to maintain its effective functioning and further stable development. The use of a range of values of the level of probability of bankruptcy, which is the inverse of the integral indicator of the financial condition of the bank, allows more differentiated determination of classes of banks by level of financial condition and group of banks at risk of bankruptcy. The developed reference matrix as a starting point of methodological support of comprehensive assessment of market value of banks avoids mistakes in choosing the methodological approach and methods of calculating the market value of a particular bank and identify potential bankrupt banks for detailed revaluation of their loan portfolios and securities portfolios.