RISK FACTOR AND UNCERTAINTIES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Uncertainty and risk are the integral components of investing activities of any entity. And, of course, each entity aims at minimizing the losses in case of any unfavorable events. These events can reduce value of settlement effect on the implementable entity to investment projects. So accounting of risk factors and uncertainty at a stage of evaluating efficiency of investment projects and portfolio constructions of real investments is extremely important for each investment manager. In this article various methods which allow to consider risk and uncertainty of time of evaluating investment projects, among which in detail are considered: an adjustment method on risk of a discount rate, a method of reliable equivalents, a simulation model of a risks assessment, determination of an inventory of financial stability, the analysis of sensitivity, a scenario method, a method of creation of a tree of decisions, imitating modeling of risks on a Monte Carlo method. For each method, the analysis algorithm is considered, and its features, advantages and disadvantages are also identified. Also, some of the presented methods have been supplemented to make the assessment of the effectiveness of projects more accurate and objective. Finally, the factors that may influence the choice of a particular valuation method by an enterprise are presented.