Uncertainty analysis of tourism components in Tabriz

Purpose: Predicting the profitability of the tourism industry is always faced with uncertainties. Especially in the last two years, when the global pandemic conditions have added to it. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the uncertainties in the components affecting tourism in Tabriz. Methodology: In addition to library studies, interviews with experts and professors in the field of tourism have been conducted in order to identify the components affecting tourism. Input factors in four areas of strategic planning, tourism potentials, regional conditions and infrastructure facilities and effective consequences on the problem in two economic areas and tourism consequences are categorized. Then, to explain the uncertainty of the obtained components, a fuzzy system is designed in MATLAB software. The system is based on an if-then rule approach with 84 rules that determine the relationship between input and output variables. Findings: Our findings from the fuzzy system model show that following the current situation, the tourism outcome of Tabriz will be normal and its economic consequences for the city of Tabriz will be inappropriate due to its historical and economic history. Also, changes in regional conditions and urban potentials do not cause much change in the tourism situation. The results of the model show that simply paying attention to the plan and infrastructure without considering other conditions does not create a suitable situation for tourism. That is, plans and infrastructure should serve the better development of urban places and potentials and the proper bedding of regional conditions. Originality/Value: Despite several years of capital and commercial center of Iran and high capabilities, Tabriz has not been able to achieve a good position in the Iranian tourism industry. Some of these factors are related to the uncertainty in plans and policies, etc. This article with this approach is an innovation in explaining the tourism conditions of Tabriz.