DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF SOCIAL RISKS AND FEATURES OF THEIR MANIFESTATION IN THE LABOR MARKET DURING THE COVID‑19 PANDEMIC

Current article considers theoretical approaches to the consistency of the term «social risk», outlines their classification features. The impact on the labor market of quarantine restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic was investigated, the sequence of manifestation of social risks associated with a decrease in the level of economic activity was determined. Ukraine has been in conditions of economic and political instability since 2014, which was the result not only of a «hybrid war» from Russia (the main trading partner at that time), but also of chronic inefficiency of state and corporate governance. The 2020 pandemic only intensified the stagnation of the economy, with an annual GDP contraction of 4%. The labor market has undergone negative changes, basic social indicators have get worse — employment of the population and the level of unemployment; the number of labor migrants abroad has decreased and, accordingly, money transfers from abroad have reduced too; incomes of the population decreased due to a reduce of salary, partial or full loss of job, suspension or termination of activities of individual entrepreneurs and self-employed persons. The difference between the number of the active and inactive population is growing, which increases the social pressure on the employed population. Of the 15915.3 thousand employed persons, the number of insured persons was only 12823.5 thousand, while the number of retirees was 11131.0 thousand, that is, the coefficient of demographic dependence of the pension system in Ukraine is 0.87 (the number of retirees per one worker). Disbursement on social payment, excluding pensions, in Ukraine are 8–20 times less than in the closest European neighbors; despite the fact that the number of citizens living below the poverty line is 2–5 times higher than the indicators of neighboring countries. The consequence of the COVID-19 crisis was not only a drop in GDP, but also an increase in the state budget deficit to 5.3% of GDP in 2020 and to 5.5% of GDP in 2021. There is a growing risk that repeated waves of COVID-19 and unacceptably slow roll-out of vaccination will undermine optimistic forecasts for the domestic economy for the next decade.