Thailand vs. Egypt: reflections on the concept of ‘electoral dictatorship’

Thailand and Egypt have seen some striking parallels in the past few years, culminating in military overthrows of elected governments, acts which were widely supported by the middle classes. This paper examines middle class thinking behind opposition to the governments, and subsequent support for the military takeovers. Both Pheu Thai and the Muslim Brotherhood won elections based on real support, including among middle class voters, although the margins of victory were smaller than sometimes portrayed. (The Muslim Brotherhood won slightly under 52% of the popular vote in 2012; Pheu Thai won just under 50% in 2011.) Once elected, they abused power, pursued their own narrow agendas, and seemed to be dismantling checks, balances, and liberties of truly democratic systems. Thailand’s middle class opposition labeled this ‘parliamentary dictatorship’. Whether it is called this, ‘electoral authoritarianism’, or ‘majoritarianism’, the concept is well known in political science. Pheu Thai and Muslim Brotherhood supporters frequently pointed to their election wins to justify simply doing what they wanted without regard for other views, for law, courts, or constitutions. To the urban middle classes, this is a very narrow understanding of ‘democracy’. They are more likely to agree with Yale law professor Robert Post: “It is a grave mistake to confuse democracy with particular decision-making procedures and to fail to identify the core values that democracy as a form of government seeks to instantiate” (Post 2005, p. 25). The middle classes became disillusioned with electoral ‘democracy’ and shifted hopes to institutions that were supposed to provide checks on government authority, notably the courts. Pheu Thai and the Muslim Brotherhood then tried to control and/or sideline the courts and other independent agencies. “The only remaining barrier (other than the military) to Islamist hegemony is the judiciary. If the Muslim Brotherhood and its FJP take control of courts and judges, this check will disappear, and Egypt could move from liberalized autocracy to electoral authoritarianism” (Brumberg 2013, p. 101). The urban middle classes in both Thailand and Egypt came out into massive street protests, polarization crystalized, and the situation rapidly degenerated. When the military stepped in, there was widespread middle class support for the moves, which is unlikely to dissipate quickly. Brumberg, Daniel. 2013. Transforming the Arab World's Protection-Racket Politics. Journal of Democracy 24(3): 88-103. Post, Robert. 2006. Democracy and Equality. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 603: 24-36.