FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC CONDITION AND FORECASTING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN THE NEW ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The aim of the article is to study the trends of key indicators of financial and economic condition of the construction sector of the national economy and forecast the volume of construction products. The relevance of the research topic is due to the fact that the state of the construction sector of the national economy is an indicator of socio-economic development of the state, only in developing regions, construction has a steady trend and constant activity among economic activities. Current trends in construction in Ukraine are characterized by the implementation of programs «New Construction», «Reconstruction», relevant changes in legislation, etc., where these reforms bring the sector to a fundamentally different level of development. The study was conducted using the following general and special scientific methods: generalization, financial and economic analysis, synthesis, forecasting, statistical, graphical. The study found that the financial indicators of the construction sector of the national economy for the period 2016–2020 are gradually declining, and economic indicators are characterized by a positive growth trend only until 2019. In 2020, significantly worsened all financial and economic indicators of the construction sector. As a result of decomposition analysis, we obtained a time series of volumes of construction products, which is devoid of trend and seasonal component. The method of constructing autoregressive models was used. The built models are high quality and describe 99% of the original data. With a probability of 95%, the obtained models are statistically significant. The degree of accuracy of the model is calculated and it is found that the obtained model provides a forecast of sufficient accuracy. A slight decrease in the volume of construction output is forecast, by an average of 1.5%. Compared to the same period in 2020, there is a growing trend in the volume of construction products. In June 2021, the growth of construction output compared to June 2020 is projected at 30%. It is proved that the construction sector of the national economy really needs support and transformation in accordance with the new economic conditions.