Spatial Modeling of Deforestation in Giam Siak Kecil - Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve, Riau Province

Giam Siak Kecil - Bukit Batu is the largest peat swamp forest in the world as a Biosphere Reserve, even though it has been designated as a biosphere reserve, but deforestation still continues, thereby threatening the preservation of the environment and existing ecosystems inside of. This paper aims to determine the deforestation that occurred in the Giam Siak Kecil - Bukit Batu Bosphere Reserve in the form of land cover distribution, deforestation area, deforestation rate and to build a model of the causes of deforestation in the 1999 - 2019 period. Data used ini this study from Landsat TM 5 images in 1999 and 2009, Landsat OLI 8 images from 2019, Indonesian Earth maps, boundary maps of the Giam Siak Kecil Biosphere Reserve - Bukit Batu, road network maps and population density maps. The method used in this paper uses remote sensing technology and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study obtained that the land cover in the Giam Siak Kecil Biosphere Reserve - Bukit Batu contained 8 classes, the area and rate of deforestation within a period of 20 years reached 3099.26 Km2 with a deforestation rate of 154.96KM2/year, and the results of deforestation modeling showed that there were 5 variables that have an effect of which 4 variables have a positive effect and 1 variable has a negative effect. The variables that have a positive effect are industrial plantations forest (X1), plantations (X3), bushland (X3), open land (X5) and the variable that has a negative effect is water bodies (X7), with the model equation Y = - 3502564, 382 + 1, 257 (X1) + 1, 963 (X3) + 0.611 (X4) + 1, 343 (X5) ? 9, 494 (X7).