Methodology for Evaluating of Threats Influence on the Energy Security Level

When an energy transition takes place, geopolitical confrontation over energy resources and technological leadership intensifies, models of energy market are changed, energy carriers are used as a weapon to achieve political goals in “hybrid” wars, the need increases to ensure the ability of authorities to neutralize threats to energy security or reduce the negative consequences of their impact. To solve this problem, methodology for evaluating of threats influence on the energy security level was developed. The methodology based on a systems approach. Threat evaluation consists of three stages – identification, analysis and, in fact, evaluation. Threat identification consists of its detection, registration and description. The used formula is: the “factor of influence” due to the presence of “vulnerability” can lead to “negative consequences”. The analysis consists of establishing the vulnerability of the object, as well as possible consequences of the threat impact, taking into account actions of authorities, aimed at its neutralization. Threat evaluation consists of establishing the total risk for each identified threat by combining corresponding probabilities and cumulative negative consequences, which are due to the vulnerability of the object. The developed methodology was used to evaluate the Ukraine energy security threats as of 1 September 2021. It was found that the weightiest of them are: degradation of energy systems and networks, lack of professionalism in the policy-making, government interference in the energy markets functioning (as internal threats); cyberattacks, washing out of professional personnel, military actions (as external threats). A systematic assessment of energy security threats will allow the authorities to better understand the phenomena, trends and factors that may complicate or make it impossible the implementation of Ukraine's national interests in the energy sector.