Determining the probability of accidents on gas distribution and gas consumption pipelines

Introduction. The aim of this study is to analyze the current state of the Russian Federation gas distribution system, based on statistical material on accidents on gas distribution and gas consumption networks. The problem of ensuring reliable operation and safe operation of systems becomes most urgent in large cities and settlements with multi-stage and branched gas distribution networks, since every year the number of gas pipelines, equipment and fittings that have exhausted their design life increases. The objective of the study is to determine the causes and dynamics of accidents, identify the determining factors, develop an algorithm for quantitative assessment of the risk of emergencies and accidents at the facilities of the gas distribution system. Materials and methods. In the work, proven research methods were used, including analysis and generalization of theory and experience in the field of reliability of gas distribution pipelines, a systematic approach and mathematical modeling were used. Results. The materials on gasification of the territory of the Russian Federation using the methods of system analysis are generalized and systematized. Mechanisms of development of failures in gas distribution and gas consumption networks are considered, data on accidents are analyzed. The review of existing methods of troubleshooting and methods of assessing the state of gas pipelines, gas fittings and gas-using equipment is carried out. Methods for improving the efficiency, reliability and safety of gas distribution systems are proposed. The main results of the study are to summarize and systematize the materials of gas distribution organizations for the gasification of the territory of the Russian Federation using systems analysis methods. Conclusions. The results obtained during the analysis on the state of the accident rate of the structural elements of the gas distribution system can be used to monitor the technical condition of the system, including taking preventive measures to prevent accident incidents.