Англійська мова та її майбутнє: три сценарії

Currently, English claims the status of not just an international, but the first world language. The key role in its dissemination is played not so much by ease of learning, but by the political, economic, scientific, technical and cultural leadership of the Englishspeaking countries. Now there are three times more speakers using English as a second language than those for whom it is native. Almost all language ratings in various parameters give it undoubted superiority. Despite this, few people think about the future of the English language. Some researchers predict that in the future it will forever establish itself as the main or even the only world language (D. Crystal). Other researchers consider its dominance as a temporary phenomenon: from the second half of the XXI century Chinese, Hindi/Urdu, Spanish, and Arabic will compete with it on equal terms for international status in their regions (D. Greddol). One can hardly be sure that in the future the current status of the English language will not change in any way, because earlier all international languages gave up their positions sooner or later. Using the scenario method, the article predicts the long-term prospects for the English language. Three variants of its further development with different results are proposed. Scenario 1: English is rapidly spreading in all countries, in almost all socially significant areas, becomes a single world language and holds this status for an indefinitely long time. Scenario 2: because of spreading on all continents, English experiences the substratum influence of local languages, new variants of it arise, which subsequently leads to its fragmentation with subsequent divergence. Scenario 3: English will retain its integrity, but will lose its leading role in international communication in favor of other languages. The probability of each of the above scenarios is estimated.