Age dynamics of the need for outpatient medical care for conditions that determine the basic value of the need in women with the diseases of the circulatory system

INTRODUCTION: The results obtained from the analysis of age dynamics are insufficient for development a program of reducing morbidity and, ultimately, mortality, since a need of medical care already indicates a problem; so prevention and screening programs should surpass the emergence of these problems. AIM: To analyze the age dynamics of the need for outpatient medical care for conditions that determine the basic value of the need in women with diseases of the circulatory system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data on 780,000 visits during one year to medical organizations that provide medical care on an outpatient basis. We studied the probability of an episode and the dynamics of the frequency of episodes depending on age in six five-year age groups: 31 to 35 years, 36 to 40 years, 41 to 45 years, 46 to 50 years, 51 to 55 years, and 56 to 60 years. The dynamics of the frequency of episodes was modeled by a mathematical function with the largest value of the approximation coefficient. The dynamics of the frequency of episodes was modeled by a mathematical function with the largest value of the approximation coefficient. RESULTS: The dynamics of the need for outpatient medical care for hypertensive diseases [Diseases characterized by high blood pressure] (I10 – I15), ischemic heart diseases (I20 – I25) and vascular diseases of the brain (I60 – I69) is characterized by an increasing trend in demand indicators throughout the studied age period. The greatest increase in indicators is observed in the age groups of 31–40 years for ischemic heart diseases and vascular diseases of the brain and 41–50 years for hypertensive conditions. The greatest increase in demand is observed for coronary heart diseases (I20 – I25). The total amount of resources required increases more than 350 times over the 30-year age period, despite the stable value of the average duration of treatment. The increase in the total amount of resources required for vascular diseases of the brain is 30 times. The lowest growth gradient is registered in relation to hypertensive conditions (10-fold growth). As a critical age period, it is most appropriate to consider the age of a woman under 35 years. CONCLUSION: Mathematical modeling is optimally performed using power functions for hypertensive conditions and vascular diseases of the brain and exponential functions for ischemic heart diseases. All the proposed models are characterized by high approximation coefficients.