INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ENTERPRISES AS THE BASIS OF THEIR SUSTAINABILITY IN THE CONSTITUTION OF UNSTABLE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Innovations form the basis for sustainable development of entrepreneurship. In a dynamic and uncertain environment, business activities are carried out under the influence of risk factors. Understanding the uncertainty factors and risk assessment, compared to the possible economic benefits and opportunities for business in the innovation process, is important to ensure enterprises' sustainability in the long run perspective. The purpose of our study is to determine the relationship between the analysis and evaluation of the uncertainties of the external and internal environment of innovative enterprises and ensure their sustainability through the implementation of business opportunities and economic, social and other benefits; development of the methodology for the effectiveness of innovative activities of enterprises assessing and forecasting, taking into account the uncertainty factors. The aim of methodological approaches used in this to identify and classify factors by sources of uncertainty based on a theoretical study of existing literature sources. Scientific novelty of our study is development of the conceptual model for economic efficiency of innovative activities forecasting, taking into account factors and sources of uncertainty using the methods of machine learning and strategic analysis. The proposed model involves the conversion of existing qualitative data into quantitative, and the probability of success or failure of innovation is calculated taking into account the previous experience of innovation of similar enterprises, taking into account the current strategic business position of the studied enterprise. The proposed methodology and the obtained results will be relevant for innovativeentrepreneurs and researchers who focus on the development of innovative technologies at the early stage of its implementation.