Monte Carlo Method Application in Airport Investment

PT Angkasa Pura 1 El Tari Kupang International Airport carried out the development of the Kupang El Tari airport in 2018, the total area of the airport was 7,462 meters2 to 15,462 meters2 for the construction of El Tari Kupang International Airport, of course the development requires a large amount of money, so the purpose of this study was to use the Monte Carlo method to determine the probability analysis of the successful development of the El Tari Kupang International Airport. The project risk analysis v2.1 program was used in this study to run the Monte Carlo simulation. This program calculates the capital risk of the evaluated project as well as the financial contingencies required to cover these risks. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the probability of success is 50.14 percent. If the project owner desires an 80 percent probability level, the budget that must be prepared must not be less than $118,355,439, or $6,030,868 plus a 5.37 percent contingency. However, if the owner wishes to be more cautious, the funds that must be prepared are $128,695,389 or $16,334,201 plus a 14.54 percent contingency to achieve a probability of 99 percent. Alternatively, this investment development project can be said to be successful.