COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY OF EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND GEORGIA
Journal: Economic Profile (Vol.17, No. 23)Publication Date: 2022-08-04
Authors : Tsitsino Dzotsenidze;
Page : 45-55
Keywords : Monetary policy rates; inflation; economic growth rate; Eastern Europe; National bank;
Abstract
Relevance of the study: Central banks exert their influence on the economy by changing the money supply using appropriate instruments in a free financial market. The combination of these tools gives us the operational framework of the National Bank. Aim of the research: to study the instruments (operational framework) of monetary policy regulation of Georgia, Moldova and Montenegro, to identify problems and to find ways to solve them. Research Methods: Use of comparative analysis method based on the database of the National Bank of Georgia, Geostat and the International Monetary Fund. The impact of Georgia's monetary policy regime and instruments on the country's macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and GDP growth rates. Analysis of the macroeconomic parameters, monetary policy regime and regulatory instruments of Moldova and Montenegro. Comparative analysis of the operational framework of the monetary policy of Georgia, Moldova and Montenegro and ways to solve the identified problems. Monetary policy only changes the future outlook for inflation, and central banks respond to one-time exogenous factors when those factors are so strong that they reflect long-term inflation expectations. Therefore, further tightening of monetary policy (already tightened) will lead to a slowdown in GDP growth and unemployment. According to current forecasts, the inflation rate in 2022 will remain high. Given that the role of temporary and exogenous factors in inflation remains to be determined, while monetary policy is still in a tightening phase, the National Bank has decided to maintain the current level of interest rates. However, in the face of strong supply shocks, the threat of further growth in inflation is still relevant. Against the background of these inflationary risks, a tightening of monetary policy or an increase in interest rates is probably still expected.
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Last modified: 2022-08-04 20:26:11