Strategic Scenarios of Post-War Restoration of Sustainable Development of the Kharkiv Region

The state and strategic scenarios of restoration of sustainable development of the post-war Kharkiv region in the security dimension are studied. To develop a strategic plan for the restoration of the Kharkiv region, a modern methodology of identification and strategizing (scientific-strategic foresight) is used according to the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and with the help of adaptive regulation methods from management theory. According to the defined methodology, three strategic recovery scenarios until 2027 were developed: inertial, realistic, optimistic with scientifically based quantitative dynamics of components and indicators until 2027, which ensure the achievement of the defined goals. The inertial scenario consolidates the negative trends of the post-war state with an average annual growth rate of real GDP of -7.3%, the realistic one – 9.8% (return to the level of 2000), the optimistic scenario – 22.9% (return to the pre-war level in 2021. The obtained strategic benchmarks of components and indicators are the ultimate goal of regulation, and their monitoring allows determining the effectiveness of the region's economic policy.