Titus’ Plague, Hypotheses on its Origin and Causes: A Consilience Study

In the period between the years 77 and 81 CE, during the Principate of Titus, some catastrophic events occurred in the Roman Empire. Sources report: the eruption of Vesuvius, 79 CE, a devastating fire in the city of Rome, which alone caused the destruction of a large part of sacred and public buildings, and an epidemic, best known as the Titus' plague. This would have occurred between the year 77 and the year 80 CE, perhaps over a period including more than a year. It is not entirely clear whether it was limited to the territory of the city of Rome or spread to other regions. Cassius Dio [2], Suetonius [3] and Jerome [4,5] and Baronius [6] placed the origin of the epidemic in the city of Rome. The relevance of the epidemic may have been very large, with a mortality rate of over 10,000 units per day [3-5]. This research investigated the causes of the epidemic, exploiting the philological analysis of the sources and by inferential statistics. Based on the information obtained from the sources, the identikit of the disease that could have been responsible for the epidemic was created. The information reported in the sources were considered as independent variables and some possible diseases as dependent variables, in a multiple regression test. Results show the influenza virus group as the most probable candidate for the genesis of the epidemic episode, with a test significance of F 7.6; P < .002. The historical news reported in the sources, with reference to the massive importation, killing and consumption of an impressive number of wild animals, including cranes, on the inauguration of the Flavian amphitheater (Colosseum), which took place in the year 80, also suggest the possible emergence of a lineage of H5N1 virus, commonly named avian flu, as a very likely etiological agent of the Titus' plague, with an even greater statistical significance: F 23.33; P < .001.