Carbon intensity of the Ukrainian industry: current state and foresight

As part of the current carbon intensity assessment and foresight of the prospects for the decarbonization of the Ukrainian industry, the most carbon-intensive (initially creating a significant carbon footprint) and carbon-vulnerable (showing the highest growth rates of carbon intensity over time) industrial sectors were identified. It is substantiated that the processing industry, agriculture, transport and energy, which have both of the above negative characteristics, are of the greatest competitive importance for Ukrainian GDP and are the most promising sectors for priority development. It is defined that for the period 1990-2020 the carbon intensity of Ukrainian GDP exceeds the global and European average levels, despite certain favorable trends in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. As of 2022 the carbon footprint of the Ukrainian industry does not exceed the established quota. However, if current trends continue, it may be exhausted by 2040. At the same time, slow progress in the decarbonization of the Ukrainian energy sector, downward dynamics of the value added in industry, a weak motivating role of environmental taxes and low investment activity of industry do not provide favorable prerequisites for effective decarbonization and digitalization of the industrial complex. The established positive trends in the reduction of carbon intensity are due to destructive phenomena in the long term (deindustrialization of the economy and economic stagnation due to the pandemic) and are temporary in nature, while maintaining the risks of increasing greenhouse gas emissions to pre-crisis levels in case of maintaining the current technological order. According to the basic scenario of the decarbonization of the Ukrainian industry (preservation of current trends and phenomena), an exhaustion of the national quota for greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, further deindustrialization of the economy, an increase in technological gaps with the developed countries of the world and an aggravate in the competitive vulnerability of national exporters are expected. The optimistic scenario assumes successful decarbonization and digitalization of the technological structure of the industrial complex. Its implementation ensures the achievement of "carbon neutrality" of the economy in 2060 and the achievement of other target indicators and qualitative changes planned in the official state strategies for environmental policy and economic development for 2030. However, it requires a significant increase in innovative activity – at the level of results of low-carbon EU-27 leaders, which has taken on heightened commitments to achieve "carbon neutrality". The key condition for the implementation of the optimistic scenario is the participation of Ukraine in international projects to prevent climate change.