Analysis of Price Volatility and Influencing Factors in Carbon Emissions Trading Pilot Markets

—With the rapid development of the domestic carbon market, the related problems caused by carbon price fluctuations have become the key research direction of building a national unified carbon market. This paper focuses on the carbon trading price of Guangdong carbon emission trading market. The price volatility of Guangdong carbon trading market from 2017 to 2019 was described and analyzed by GARCH model. Then, through theoretical hypothesis, quantile regression model is selected to study the influence degree of different factors on carbon price fluctuation. The results show that the carbon price yield of Guangdong has the characteristics of "peak and thick tail". At the same time, the trading price of Guangdong carbon market is most affected by the CSI 300 index, followed by the air quality index, and the influence degree of traditional energy is followed by coal price, oil price and natural gas price. Finally, some relevant policy suggestions are given